A Risk-First Game Plan for Swing Trading Bitcoin & Ethereu

Nov 20, 2025

Trey Munson

Crypto Insights

If you’ve ever tried to swing trade Bitcoin or Ethereum, you’ve probably met their dark side:


You’re up nicely one day, stopped out the next.

You catch a breakout… right before a sharp flush.

You size “by feel” and the losses hit way harder than you expected.


The problem usually isn’t your chart patterns—it’s the **lack of a clear, risk-first framework**.


In this post, we’ll build a straightforward game plan for swing trading BTC and ETH that fits the Digital Dollars Trading philosophy: protect capital first, grow it second, and keep your process calm and repeatable.


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## 1. Define the Job of Crypto in Your Overall Plan


Before any chart work, decide what crypto is *for* in your trading:


- Is it a **small satellite** position around a larger futures/options focus?

- Is it your **primary swing vehicle** because you like 24/7 markets?

- Is it a **higher-risk growth bucket** in an otherwise conservative portfolio?


Be honest about risk tolerance. Crypto is volatile; that’s great for opportunity and terrible if you secretly want stability.


A simple rule of thumb:

- If you’re newer or your income does **not** depend on trading: keep crypto trading risk to a **small slice** of your total capital.

- If trading is your main focus and you’re experienced: you may allocate more, but the **risk per trade** still needs structure (we’ll get there soon).


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## 2. Choose Your Timeframes and Pairs on Purpose


For this framework, we’ll keep it simple and focus on:

- **Pairs:** BTC/USDT (or BTC/USD) and ETH/USDT (or ETH/USD)

- **Swing timeframe:** 4-hour and daily charts for swing direction, 1-hour for precise entries


Why these?

- BTC and ETH are the majors: deepest liquidity, most watched, less random than small caps.

- 4H and daily help you avoid noise and build “breathing room” into trades.

- 1H gives reasonable entry precision without trapping you in every wiggle.


You can always add more coins later, but mastering two majors is plenty of work.


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## 3. Build a Simple Market Structure Checklist


Before you enter anything, answer three questions:


1. **Trend:** Is price making higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows on the 4H/daily?

2. **Key Levels:** Where are the obvious support and resistance zones? (Prior swing highs/lows, consolidation areas, and major round numbers.)

3. **Context:** Is volatility expanding or contracting? Are we breaking out of a range or stuck inside one?


From that, define a basic bias:


- Uptrend + pullback to support = look for **longs**

- Downtrend + rally into resistance = look for **shorts** (if your setup allows shorting)

- Choppy, overlapping candles with no clear direction = **defensive mode**, smaller size or no trade


Your edge comes from aligning with a clear structure, not from guessing tops or bottoms.


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## 4. Entry and Exit Logic: Structure First, Signal Second


For entries, think **“level + confirmation”** rather than “indicator says buy.”


Example long framework:

- Market is in a clear uptrend on the daily and 4H.

- BTC pulls back into a prior resistance level that’s now acting as support (or a demand zone).

- On the 1H chart, you see:

  - Selling momentum slowing (smaller red candles, wicks off the lows), and

  - A bullish candle that reclaims the level.


That combination—trend + level + confirmation candle—is your green light to consider an entry.


For exits, define:


- **Invalidation:** The price level that proves your idea wrong (e.g., a clean break below the support zone you’re trading off).

- **Targets:** Logical areas where price is likely to react (prior highs, mid-range levels, or measured move projections).


A simple approach:

- Initial stop just beyond the level that anchors your idea.

- First take-profit at a 1.5–2R reward-to-risk.

- Optional runner portion left to ride further trend, with stop moved to breakeven once 1R is hit.


You don’t need anything fancy—just consistent.


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## 5. Position Sizing: Make the Math Boring (On Purpose)


This is where most traders quietly blow up.


Here’s a clean formula you can use on every crypto swing trade:


1. Decide your **risk per trade** as a % of your trading account.

   - Newer traders: 0.5–1% per trade

   - Experienced traders: 1–2% max


2. Measure the distance between your **entry** and **stop loss** in dollars.

   - Example: You want to long BTC at $70,000 with a stop at $67,500.

   - Risk per coin = $2,500.


3. Calculate your position size:

   - If your account is $10,000 and you risk 1% per trade, your dollar risk is **$100**.

   - Position size = $100 / $2,500 = 0.04 BTC.


This is the part most people “eyeball,” then wonder why one loss hurts more than the others. Make it mechanical:

- Same % risk.

- Same process.

- Every single trade.


The volatility of BTC and ETH then becomes a feature, not a threat, because your sizing adjusts automatically.


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## 6. Trade Management: Don’t Turn Winners into Stress


Once you’re in a trade, your job is **not** to over-manage every candle.


Consider these guidelines:


- **No adding to losers.** Ever. This is how “small planned risk” becomes “account-breaking event.”

- **Move stop only for valid reasons,** not emotions:

  - Move to breakeven once price has made a clear move in your favor and respected a new higher low (for longs) or lower high (for shorts).

- **Scale out with intention:**

  - Take partial profits at 1.5–2R to pay yourself.

  - Leave a portion to ride bigger swings if structure stays intact.


Remember: the market does not owe you the entire move. Being consistently profitable beats catching the exact top and bottom.


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## 7. Build a Simple Swing Trading Routine


Consistency comes from your **routine**, not just your setups.


Sample crypto swing routine:


**Once per day (15–20 minutes):**

- Review the daily and 4H charts for BTC and ETH.

- Update key levels and trend bias.

- Note any clean pullbacks or breakouts setting up for tomorrow.


**Twice per day (5–10 minutes each):**

- Quick 1H check-in during your chosen windows (for example, morning and evening local time).

- Look for your level + confirmation conditions.

- Place, adjust, or cancel orders as needed.


**Once per week (20–30 minutes):**

- Journal closed trades:

  - What was the setup?

  - Did you follow your risk rules?

  - What would you do the same or differently next time?


The goal isn’t perfection—just steady improvement and fewer emotional decisions.


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## 8. Mindset: Treat Every Trade Like One of Many


One of the biggest mindset shifts in swing trading crypto is this:


> No single trade matters that much. The *series* of trades is what defines your edge.


When you size properly, honor your stops, and follow a routine, each trade becomes just another data point in a much larger journey toward financial freedom through skill.


That’s the Digital Dollars Trading approach:

- Clear structure

- Risk-first decision making

- Repeatable habits


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## Call to Action: Don’t Trade Crypto Alone


If you want help turning this framework into a real, working plan—complete with levels, examples, and feedback—come join us in the **Digital Dollars Trading Discord**.


Inside the community, you’ll find:

- Traders walking through their BTC and ETH swing ideas in real time

- Risk-focused discussions on position sizing and trade management

- A supportive environment where you can ask questions, share charts, and stay accountable to your process


You don’t have to figure out crypto swing trading in isolation. Plug into a room of people who care about **protecting the downside and growing steadily**, not chasing lottery tickets.


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SUGGESTED INTERNAL LINKS:

- *Risk Management 101: Protecting Your Trading Capital*

- *How to Build a Simple Crypto Trading Plan*

- *Day vs Swing Trading: Which Style Fits You Best?*

- *Trading Journal Templates for Serious Tr

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