A Risk-First Game Plan for Swing Trading Bitcoin & Ethereu
Nov 20, 2025

Trey Munson
Crypto Insights
If you’ve ever tried to swing trade Bitcoin or Ethereum, you’ve probably met their dark side:
You’re up nicely one day, stopped out the next.
You catch a breakout… right before a sharp flush.
You size “by feel” and the losses hit way harder than you expected.
The problem usually isn’t your chart patterns—it’s the **lack of a clear, risk-first framework**.
In this post, we’ll build a straightforward game plan for swing trading BTC and ETH that fits the Digital Dollars Trading philosophy: protect capital first, grow it second, and keep your process calm and repeatable.
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## 1. Define the Job of Crypto in Your Overall Plan
Before any chart work, decide what crypto is *for* in your trading:
- Is it a **small satellite** position around a larger futures/options focus?
- Is it your **primary swing vehicle** because you like 24/7 markets?
- Is it a **higher-risk growth bucket** in an otherwise conservative portfolio?
Be honest about risk tolerance. Crypto is volatile; that’s great for opportunity and terrible if you secretly want stability.
A simple rule of thumb:
- If you’re newer or your income does **not** depend on trading: keep crypto trading risk to a **small slice** of your total capital.
- If trading is your main focus and you’re experienced: you may allocate more, but the **risk per trade** still needs structure (we’ll get there soon).
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## 2. Choose Your Timeframes and Pairs on Purpose
For this framework, we’ll keep it simple and focus on:
- **Pairs:** BTC/USDT (or BTC/USD) and ETH/USDT (or ETH/USD)
- **Swing timeframe:** 4-hour and daily charts for swing direction, 1-hour for precise entries
Why these?
- BTC and ETH are the majors: deepest liquidity, most watched, less random than small caps.
- 4H and daily help you avoid noise and build “breathing room” into trades.
- 1H gives reasonable entry precision without trapping you in every wiggle.
You can always add more coins later, but mastering two majors is plenty of work.
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## 3. Build a Simple Market Structure Checklist
Before you enter anything, answer three questions:
1. **Trend:** Is price making higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows on the 4H/daily?
2. **Key Levels:** Where are the obvious support and resistance zones? (Prior swing highs/lows, consolidation areas, and major round numbers.)
3. **Context:** Is volatility expanding or contracting? Are we breaking out of a range or stuck inside one?
From that, define a basic bias:
- Uptrend + pullback to support = look for **longs**
- Downtrend + rally into resistance = look for **shorts** (if your setup allows shorting)
- Choppy, overlapping candles with no clear direction = **defensive mode**, smaller size or no trade
Your edge comes from aligning with a clear structure, not from guessing tops or bottoms.
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## 4. Entry and Exit Logic: Structure First, Signal Second
For entries, think **“level + confirmation”** rather than “indicator says buy.”
Example long framework:
- Market is in a clear uptrend on the daily and 4H.
- BTC pulls back into a prior resistance level that’s now acting as support (or a demand zone).
- On the 1H chart, you see:
- Selling momentum slowing (smaller red candles, wicks off the lows), and
- A bullish candle that reclaims the level.
That combination—trend + level + confirmation candle—is your green light to consider an entry.
For exits, define:
- **Invalidation:** The price level that proves your idea wrong (e.g., a clean break below the support zone you’re trading off).
- **Targets:** Logical areas where price is likely to react (prior highs, mid-range levels, or measured move projections).
A simple approach:
- Initial stop just beyond the level that anchors your idea.
- First take-profit at a 1.5–2R reward-to-risk.
- Optional runner portion left to ride further trend, with stop moved to breakeven once 1R is hit.
You don’t need anything fancy—just consistent.
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## 5. Position Sizing: Make the Math Boring (On Purpose)
This is where most traders quietly blow up.
Here’s a clean formula you can use on every crypto swing trade:
1. Decide your **risk per trade** as a % of your trading account.
- Newer traders: 0.5–1% per trade
- Experienced traders: 1–2% max
2. Measure the distance between your **entry** and **stop loss** in dollars.
- Example: You want to long BTC at $70,000 with a stop at $67,500.
- Risk per coin = $2,500.
3. Calculate your position size:
- If your account is $10,000 and you risk 1% per trade, your dollar risk is **$100**.
- Position size = $100 / $2,500 = 0.04 BTC.
This is the part most people “eyeball,” then wonder why one loss hurts more than the others. Make it mechanical:
- Same % risk.
- Same process.
- Every single trade.
The volatility of BTC and ETH then becomes a feature, not a threat, because your sizing adjusts automatically.
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## 6. Trade Management: Don’t Turn Winners into Stress
Once you’re in a trade, your job is **not** to over-manage every candle.
Consider these guidelines:
- **No adding to losers.** Ever. This is how “small planned risk” becomes “account-breaking event.”
- **Move stop only for valid reasons,** not emotions:
- Move to breakeven once price has made a clear move in your favor and respected a new higher low (for longs) or lower high (for shorts).
- **Scale out with intention:**
- Take partial profits at 1.5–2R to pay yourself.
- Leave a portion to ride bigger swings if structure stays intact.
Remember: the market does not owe you the entire move. Being consistently profitable beats catching the exact top and bottom.
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## 7. Build a Simple Swing Trading Routine
Consistency comes from your **routine**, not just your setups.
Sample crypto swing routine:
**Once per day (15–20 minutes):**
- Review the daily and 4H charts for BTC and ETH.
- Update key levels and trend bias.
- Note any clean pullbacks or breakouts setting up for tomorrow.
**Twice per day (5–10 minutes each):**
- Quick 1H check-in during your chosen windows (for example, morning and evening local time).
- Look for your level + confirmation conditions.
- Place, adjust, or cancel orders as needed.
**Once per week (20–30 minutes):**
- Journal closed trades:
- What was the setup?
- Did you follow your risk rules?
- What would you do the same or differently next time?
The goal isn’t perfection—just steady improvement and fewer emotional decisions.
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## 8. Mindset: Treat Every Trade Like One of Many
One of the biggest mindset shifts in swing trading crypto is this:
> No single trade matters that much. The *series* of trades is what defines your edge.
When you size properly, honor your stops, and follow a routine, each trade becomes just another data point in a much larger journey toward financial freedom through skill.
That’s the Digital Dollars Trading approach:
- Clear structure
- Risk-first decision making
- Repeatable habits
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## Call to Action: Don’t Trade Crypto Alone
If you want help turning this framework into a real, working plan—complete with levels, examples, and feedback—come join us in the **Digital Dollars Trading Discord**.
Inside the community, you’ll find:
- Traders walking through their BTC and ETH swing ideas in real time
- Risk-focused discussions on position sizing and trade management
- A supportive environment where you can ask questions, share charts, and stay accountable to your process
You don’t have to figure out crypto swing trading in isolation. Plug into a room of people who care about **protecting the downside and growing steadily**, not chasing lottery tickets.
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SUGGESTED INTERNAL LINKS:
- *Risk Management 101: Protecting Your Trading Capital*
- *How to Build a Simple Crypto Trading Plan*
- *Day vs Swing Trading: Which Style Fits You Best?*
- *Trading Journal Templates for Serious Tr
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